Track record
Every forecast we publish, scored in public
Each ComtIQ report ends with dated forecasts on where the rule will land. Every one is listed here with its probability and the test that settles it. When the final rule or the court decision comes out, we score it, and misses stay on the page next to hits.
47Forecasts loggedAcross 6 reports
0ResolvedFirst due Dec 31, 2026
n/aMean Brier scoreNo forecast has resolved yet. The first is due Dec 31, 2026.
n/aCalls on the right sideRoughly even calls are left out
Next to resolve
The forecasts with a date attached
Most forecasts resolve when the agency publishes the final rule. These ones have a fixed deadline.
- Dec 31, 2026The rescission stays in effect through the end of 2026
- Jan 20, 2027The final rule is published before January 20, 2027
- Jun 22, 2027Final rule effective before June 22, 2027
- Jun 30, 2027A D.C. Circuit merits decision before mid 2027
- Jun 30, 2027EPA grants a reconsideration petition in a way that changes the rule
All forecasts
The full log
Download the whole log as track-record.csv. Each report also publishes its own forecast log next to its data files.
| Report | Forecast | Likelihood | Logged | Resolves | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194 S1 · v1.3 | The rescission stays in effect through the end of 2026 Settled by Rule in effect on December 31, 2026 | Very likely 80-95% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Dec 31, 2026 | open | |
| WHD-2026-0001 S1 · v1.4 | The final rule is published before January 20, 2027 Settled by Federal Register publication date | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Jan 20, 2027 | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 S4 · v1.1 | Final rule effective before June 22, 2027 Settled by Effective date in the Federal Register | Likely 55-80% Low confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Jun 22, 2027 | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194 S2 · v1.3 | A D.C. Circuit merits decision before mid 2027 Settled by Opinion in No. 26-1037 by June 30, 2027 | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Jun 30, 2027 | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194 S3 · v1.3 | EPA grants a reconsideration petition in a way that changes the rule Settled by EPA notice by June 30, 2027 | Very unlikely 5-20% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Jun 30, 2027 | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S1 · v1.0 | Treasury publishes the final section 3 rule by 30 June 2027 Settled by Federal Register, RIN 1505-AC95 | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Jun 30, 2027 | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S1 · v1.0 | EPA publishes a final rescission rule by June 30, 2027 Settled by Federal Register, RIN 2040-AG53 | Likely 55-80% Low confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Jun 30, 2027 | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S1 · v1.0 | Final rule published by 31 December 2027 Settled by Federal Register | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Dec 31, 2027 | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S6 · v1.0 | Proposal withdrawn by 31 December 2027 Settled by Federal Register, Unified Agenda | Very unlikely 5-20% Moderate confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Dec 31, 2027 | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S8 · v1.0 | EPA proposes a new standard for any of the four PFAS by December 31, 2028 Settled by Federal Register | Unlikely 20-45% Low confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Dec 31, 2028 | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 J1 · v1.1 | Bond minimums of $10,000 and $25,000 appear in the final rule Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3104.1 | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 J2 · v1.1 | Final rule keeps both 30-day comment periods eliminated and a 10-day protest window, unchanged Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3120.42 | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 J3 · v1.1 | Bond minimums survive judicial review if challenged Settled by Court ruling on the merits | Roughly even 45-55% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Court ruling on the merits | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 J5 · v1.1 | Royalty floor, four sales a year and noncompetitive leasing stay in force Settled by Statute and BLM guidance at final rule | Almost certain 95-99% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R1 · v1.1 | 10-day protest window appears unchanged Settled by Final rule text | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R2 · v1.1 | Both comment periods removed, unchanged Settled by Final rule text | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R3 · v1.1 | $1 per page fee beyond 50 pages appears unchanged Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3000.120 and 3120.43 | Unlikely 20-45% Low confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R4 · v1.1 | Surface owner identification removal appears unchanged Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3120.31 | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R5 · v1.1 | Nationwide bonds reinstated at $150,000 Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3104 | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R6 · v1.1 | Preference criteria removed Settled by Final rule text, 43 CFR 3120.32 | Very likely 80-95% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 R7 · v1.1 | Application fee set at $155 Settled by Final rule fee schedule | Very likely 80-95% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 S1 · v1.1 | Bond minimums kept, one comment period restored or protest window lengthened, nationwide bonds reinstated Settled by Final rule text | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 S2 · v1.1 | Every discretionary provision adopted as proposed Settled by Final rule text | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 S3 · v1.1 | Bond minimums set above pre-2024 levels Settled by Final rule text | Very unlikely 5-20% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| BLM-2025-0037 S5 · v1.1 | Lawsuit by states, conservation groups or taxpayer advocates within six months of publication Settled by Court dockets | Very likely 80-95% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Six months after the final rule | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194 S4 · v1.3 | The final power plant rule again sets climate science comments aside as out of scope Settled by Response to comments, EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0124 | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final power plant rule | open | |
| WHD-2026-0001 S2 · v1.4 | The final rule keeps the two core factors and the extension to the FMLA and the MSPA Settled by Final text, 29 CFR 795, 825 and 500 | Very likely 80-95% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| WHD-2026-0001 S3 · v1.4 | The final rule creates a presumption of employee status in construction Settled by Final text | Very unlikely 5-20% High confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| WHD-2026-0001 S4 · v1.4 | Worker groups, states or local governments sue within six months of publication Settled by Court dockets | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Oct 25, 2026 · archived copy | Six months after the final rule | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S2 · v1.0 | § 400.3(c) narrowed or removed for airspace closures or airport layout plans Settled by Final text of § 400.3(c) | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S3 · v1.0 | Final list adds any of the eight statutes the FAA floated Settled by Final text of § 400.3(b) | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S4 · v1.0 | Final rule text or preamble states how the waiver applies where the Department of the Air Force or NASA runs its own environmental review at a federal range Settled by Final rule and preamble | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| FAA-2026-8614 S5 · v1.0 | Lawsuit challenging the rule filed within six months of publication, if the final text keeps a categorical NEPA waiver Settled by Court dockets | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 3, 2026 · archived copy | Six months after the final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S2 · v1.0 | The final rule keeps service-provider reliance on a foreign issuer's representation after due diligence, § 1523.3(c) Settled by Final text of § 1523.3(c) | Very likely 80-95% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S3 · v1.0 | The final rule or preamble names official records, the OCC's section 18 list or Treasury's section 8 notices, as part of the required diligence Settled by Final rule and preamble | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S4 · v1.0 | Checking official lists alone satisfies the diligence duty, a full safe harbor Settled by Final text of § 1523.3(c) | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S5 · v1.0 | The reasonable-belief safe harbors in §§ 1523.2(c) and 1523.3(e) survive in some form Settled by Final text of §§ 1523.2(c) and 1523.3(e) | Very likely 80-95% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S6 · v1.0 | Treasury explains, in the preamble or in examples, how market making, distribution and infrastructure services relate to an unlawful issuance under § 1523.2(d) Settled by Final preamble and Appendix A | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S7 · v1.0 | The rule text of § 1523.2(d) adds an express coordination, purpose or material-connection requirement Settled by Final text of § 1523.2(d) | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S8 · v1.0 | § 1523.2(d) becomes an exhaustive list Settled by Final text of § 1523.2(d) | Unlikely 20-45% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| TREAS-DO-2026-0496 S9 · v1.0 | Treasury withdraws the proposal or issues a new proposal before a final rule Settled by Federal Register, Unified Agenda | Very unlikely 5-20% Moderate confidence | Nov 6, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule or withdrawal | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S2 · v1.0 | If a final rule publishes, it rescinds the determinations and the standards for all four PFAS as proposed Settled by Final rule text, 40 CFR 141.61 | Likely 55-80% Moderate confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S3 · v1.0 | The final rule keeps a monitoring or occurrence-data requirement for the four PFAS Settled by Final rule text, 40 CFR 141.902 to 141.905 | Unlikely 20-45% Low confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S4 · v1.0 | EPA adopts the procedural cure, keeping the determinations and re-proposing the standards, instead of rescinding Settled by Final rule, or a remand order | Very unlikely 5-20% Moderate confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule or remand | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S5 · v1.0 | The D.C. Circuit decides American Water Works Association v. EPA before the final rescission publishes Settled by D.C. Circuit opinion date against the Federal Register date | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Final rule or D.C. Circuit opinion | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S6 · v1.0 | A petition for review of the final rescission is filed within the 45-day window of SDWA section 1448 Settled by Petition docketed in the D.C. Circuit | Almost certain 95-99% High confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | 45 days after the final rule | open | |
| EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0654 S7 · v1.0 | If a final rescission publishes and is challenged, the court upholds it on the merits (a remand without vacatur counts as not upheld) Settled by Court of appeals judgment | Roughly even 45-55% Low confidence | Nov 9, 2026 · archived copy | Court of appeals judgment | open |
Calibration
Do our "likely" calls happen about as often as we say?
A forecaster is calibrated when events called "likely" (55 to 80%) happen roughly that often. We report the rate for each term once 20 forecasts have resolved, so a handful of early results does not pass for a trend.
| Term | Band | Logged | Resolved | How often it happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very unlikely | 5-20% | 6 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
| Unlikely | 20-45% | 11 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
| Roughly even | 45-55% | 7 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
| Likely | 55-80% | 14 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
| Very likely | 80-95% | 7 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
| Almost certain | 95-99% | 2 | 0 | after 20 resolve |
How we keep score
The rules, set before the first result
Likelihood and confidence are reported apart. Likelihood uses the seven terms of Intelligence Community Directive 203, from almost no chance (1 to 5%) to almost certain (95 to 99%). Confidence says how good the evidence is.
Every forecast names the test that settles it, usually the text of the final rule, a Federal Register date or a court docket. The result links to that source.
A forecast is never edited after publication. If our view changes, a new report version logs a new forecast with a new date, and the old one stays and is scored too.
A forecast resolves to 1 if the event happened and 0 if it did not. A conditional forecast whose condition never occurs is marked void and left out of every score.
The Brier score is the square of the gap between our probability, the midpoint of the band, and the result. A "likely" call scores 0.11 when it happens and 0.46 when it does not. Answering 50% to everything scores 0.25.
Where a report has an archived copy, the Logged column links to the Internet Archive, so anyone can check that the forecast was public on that date.
Forecasts are analysis, not legal or investment advice. Page built Nov 11, 2026.